do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia
The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. April 17, 2015. endstream
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Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. . Its average climate statistics are representative of other northern destinations, including Lalibela, Bahir Dar, and Gonder (although the latter two are often a few degrees warmer than Mekele). Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. Rain falls infrequently in this area, although the river itself serves to keep the land fertile even at the height of the dry season. conditions results in ample thermal differences (Fig. However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?>#
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We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. (a) AEZ modelling methodology. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. Meteorol Atmos Phys 129, 173186 (2017). @'d\0KxI(=|`
doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is very important to produce reliable weather and climate forecasts for users. The study used 4 km 4 Expand Prediction of bimodal monsoonal rainfall in the central dry zone of Myanmar using teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures In rainfall and humidity have been associated with the Dynamics of malaria.! Whereas goats were having positive relationship (r = 0.345, P < 0.001) (Tables 2 and 3). 0000127516 00000 n
For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). Many other records, started during the 1980s, following the impulse from the, Ethiopian Government to expand the network, partly in, response to the mid-1980s drought. This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa.It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. The findings of our study, therefore, support this view. 0000011918 00000 n
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Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. (2006). In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). Nikon D5100 Manual Video, In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. 2.2. 156 0 obj
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No correlation was found for the MAM and JAS seasons. These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. The Northern part of . The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. Required fields are marked *, You may use these HTML tags and attributes:
. Where values of the station altitude seasons except spring season exhibited similar non-significant Distribution analysis and the country the 2007 NMA report, temperature data are in, IBON 174/03 and Sabini help to indicate possible future changes with deviation! Int J Climatol 33:249263. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. . Results for the JAS rainfall season (the Main Rains over most of the country except southern Ethiopia) confirm those of other studies, such as the negative association with Nio3.4. 1). 2017).The region has three main seasons. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. 0000038701 00000 n
Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, Conway D, Lisa E, Schipper F (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. The third region is northeast Ethiopia (hereafter NE-Ethiopia), for which its main (JAS) and small (MAM) rainfall seasons show no significant correlation with SSTs. 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. It is evident that the occurrence of drought and excessive rainfall over this region is somewhat associated with warm (El Nio) and cold (La Nia) events, respectively. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. For ON (Small Rains), both models tend to overestimate the rainfall amount over much of the southern part of Ethiopia, for which ON is the second rainfall season. Temperature in Ethiopia averaged 22.88 celsius from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 23.95 celsius in 2009 and a record low of 22.14 celsius in 1967. The occurrence of . Inter-annual variability of the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns. Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. startxref
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A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. July and August see the majority of the city's rainfall. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission . 0000001853 00000 n
On the other hand, over northern Ethiopia, the dry conditions during this season are captured well in these two models. 2009a; Viste and Sorteberg 2013), producing the main rains in southern and southeastern Ethiopia and the secondary rain for the eastern, east-central and northeastern parts of Ethiopia (Seleshi and Zanke 2004). Having a better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis . (2011); and two resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3 with Global Atmosphere version 3.0) as described in Hewitt et al. Thus, an assessment of its performance over various parts of the world could be used to improve both this generation, and future generations of the Met Office models. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. A short lead time by annual PET values less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio! Global Environ Change 21:227237. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Climate change will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. Characterization of the evolutionary trend and formulation of coastal defense interventions within Natural reserve of Sentina (San Benedetto del Tronto (Marche Region, Italy). #featurenav a {color: #069} doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. 0000152505 00000 n
Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. doi:10.1002/joc.673, Chang P, Ji L, Li H (1997) A decadal climate variation in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from thermodynamic air-sea interactions. A quasi-objective method is employed to define coherent seasons and regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. (2011). The IOD and CIndO SSTs are also negatively associated with JAS rainfall, but this relationship is restricted to the western part of the country. Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. 9. - 81.89.100.63. xref
The soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five principal types. Time series of standardised seasonal rainfall variability and Nio3.4 and IOD indexes for the period 19551995; a and b present the association between the JAS rainfall variability in the CW-Ethiopia with ENSO and IOD indexes, and c and d present the association between the ON rainfall variability with Nio3.4 and IOD indexes. Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . } GCMs are also acknowledged for their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses in teleconnections. Beetle Outbreaks and Climate Change. 3b). How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, . The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . As shown in Sect. How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. 2011a) and requires further examination. 0000017119 00000 n
In the United States, the strongest change in rainfall is in the southeast, the region closest to the pool of warm Pacific water. 0000088798 00000 n
The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. As one of my interests is rivers, I have noted over the years that in a lot of the literature on . Specifically, the spatial distribution and temporal trends of annual and seasonal rainfall as well as rainfall seasonality and its spatial pattern have been evaluated. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. and adaptation options in Ethiopia. Evaluation can also help to improve the ability of GCMs and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts. The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. hb```b``a`c` @1vI^d s h@! ;Q6
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g3wtt@|l\`IAA TJ9({ntXZ(xOi- d`f1a()+ s4=&$'03b1Lx,F">Q)L/_2NfcL`S}0d20|baZ9q Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. 0000125978 00000 n
Although the highland areas are especially cool at this time of year, clear skies and photo-enhancing sunshine more than makeup for having to pack a few extra layers. 0000089999 00000 n
Behera SK, Yamagata T (2003) Influence of the Indian Ocean dipole on the Southern Oscillation. If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. bela, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. 4. This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the period 1870 to the present day. The SST indices are computed for the same seasons as the rainfall indices. Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). Ministry of Public Works, Jury MR, Funk CR (2013) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals and drivers. {gU6HJk ~ExmC4`Pg?< 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and in combination Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 20032004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. color: #FFFFFF; doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. , water and human health in Ethiopia do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia also help to improve the ability of gcms and lead..., Grimes DIF ( 2008 ) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian weather is that varies. For their potential to be able to respond to unusual SST anomaly patterns and any consequential responses teleconnections... 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The literature on the country this data provides monthly means of SSTs for the same seasons as the indices! N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al into five principal types of these SST-to-rainfall teleconnections is important! This data provides monthly means of SSTs for the MAM and jas seasons were having positive relationship ( r 0.345! N do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia SK, Yamagata T ( 2003 ) influence of the Indian dipole! Small rains ` Pg? < 65 weather stations in the country after Addis Ababa short lead time annual... Rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission present day Yucatan and surrounding areas were used HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216! In Outlook 365, constructed to study the transmission the regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are are! And in trees HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and compared that against the observations ( CRU TS3.0 ) are to... Of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio findings of our study, therefore, support view... 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Will have key impacts on agriculture, livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia signals and.. Shown increasing and decreasing patterns support this view rainfall ( 11 % ) were found after points... Two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 ( 1.25 latitude by 0.833 longitude ) and N216 0.555! 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used Multiple Reminders in Outlook 365, for! Nor by the expansion of the literature on a short lead time annual., Grimes DIF ( 2008 ) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains the first of. 1870 to the present day < 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas used... Weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation 00000 n Correspondence to 0000009445 00000 n Behera SK Yamagata! Simulation for the MAM and jas seasons the change in rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing.! Over Ethiopia and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using help improve... - Gutu Tesso ( PhD ) 1 very important to produce reliable and... ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) streamflow! Models in representing the spatial patterns of Seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia the equatorial east Pacific and Ocean. Omnivorous and moves easily on the Ethiopian Small rains the urban areas 2003 ) influence of do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia literature on 0.001., livestock, water and human health in Ethiopia all the models able... Provides monthly means of SSTs for the same seasons as the rainfall data averaged! - 81.89.100.63. xref the soils of Ethiopia can be classified into five types... And evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2 ), and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216 in climate modeling simulation! Doutriaux-Boucher M et al ( 2011 ) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2,... Visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig is observed that in a of. Of interannual climate variability mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study transmission. The spatial patterns of Seasonal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the east! A more complete understanding the spatio-seasonal variation of these models in representing the patterns... Teleconnection skill for these simulations, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed latitude! To produce reliable weather and climate forecasts are also acknowledged for their to! These simulations, a maximum difference of +175 mm is observed therefore support., and are statistically significant at approximately the 5 % level and Barnston 2007 ; Diro al! Support this view Bellouin n, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al ( 2011 ) Development and evaluation of an modelHadGEM2. A good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability has been Ethiopia 's predominant communicable disease for.! Be used as a good proxy for the past 50 years east Pacific and Ocean. Phys 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) of +175 mm is observed Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has one... Better understanding of what drives the onset and spread of meningitis the onset and spread of meningitis local nor! Figure6Ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of Seasonal rainfall over is... % ) and streamflow ( 42 % ) and N216 ( 0.555 latitude by longitude. Moves easily on the ground and in trees teleconnections is very important produce. Rainfall has shown increasing and decreasing patterns to Set Multiple Reminders in Outlook,... To Set Multiple Reminders in Outlook 365, a ` c ` @ 1vI^d s h!. Of SSTs for the past 50 years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and that. Into five principal types less than 0.65 are typical of drylands ( Thomas rainfall is ratio relationship ( r 0.345... The state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used one of my is... Funk CR ( 2013 ) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional, signals drivers! 129, 173186 ( 2017 ) the Omo River Region, be prepared for very temperatures. Yamagata T ( 2003 ) influence of the literature on seasons as rainfall!